Using Compartmental Models to Evaluate the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Interventions

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Reed, Zane
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University Honors College, Middle Tennessee State University
In this thesis, we propose a method for mathematically modeling the spread of COVID-19 with a compartmental model based on di erential equations. Through the development of this model, we hope to be able to study the be-havior of the virus so that information can be gathered about how to intervene in its spread. After computing some of the model's mathematical properties, we simulate the model using data from Rutherford County. From this, we can learn about the expected outcomes and the progression of an outbreak. The results show rapid growth of new cases without the presence of vaccination; with vaccination programs in place, the growth is considerably slower and can reflect the real data, but it depends on other factors such as the vaccine efficacy. As such, we conclude that the model is useful in the short-term and demonstrates the importance of vaccination programs.