Student Understanding of Conditional Probability

Abstract

With increased availability of data, the need to be statistically literate has become crucial for a person to consume news. One major branch of statistics is probability which describes the likelihood of an event to happen. This uncertain nature of probability can often cause confusion. Specifically, conditional probability has been shown to be difficult to comprehend for students. This paper examines the importance of probability literacy. It highlights cognitive issues in learning conditional probability as well as difficulties teaching the concept. Research from the past few decades discussing student misconceptions, student understanding frameworks, and teaching strategies to overcome cognitive issues is reviewed and utilized to construct a unit plan for teaching conditional probability. The unit plan is presented in full and justified using research-based suggestions in aims to improve the teaching and learning of conditional probability.